A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
